You will often find yourself with a hand that may or may not be the best, so it’s not easy to decide if you should stay with it or let it go. As an example, let’s say you’re in the Big Blind of a single-table NLHE tournament with K-J suited and everyone has folded to the Button who makes a 3-times the Big Blind raise. The Small Blind calls and, because you’re getting odds of 3.5 to 1, you call. (If the BB is $100 and the SB is $50, a 3x raise is $300; the SB puts in $250, so the pot is now $700 and you must bet $200.) Let’s say the flop comes J,7,5 “rainbow” (all different suits) and the Button bets $500 into the what-is-now $900 pot. The Small Blind folds and it’s now up to you; you’ll need to make a $500 call into a $1400 pot, so you’re getting some decent pot odds. However, if you do call, what have you learned about you opponent’s hand? Basically nothing, which is not the way you want it to be when you’re putting your $$$ to risk, although it’s certainly not the worst call you’ll ever make.
But a better idea is to raise your opponent’s bet to $1000. My reasoning here is: (A) players often raise – quite properly – on the button with relatively weak hands, like 10-J, A-x or a low pair and (B) after such a raise, many will make a “continuation” bet, whether or not the flop helped them. If you do raise $1000, the pot is now $2400 and your opponent will have to bet $500 to stay in the hand, which is nearly 5 to 1 pot odds. That might induce a call if s/he has an open-ended Straight draw, but it’s not enough if s/he has an inside Straight draw (6 to 1 is the proper odds for that) or a Flush draw, which will require runner, runner suited cards (because the flop was of all different suits.) Of course, your opponent could have many other hands: Jack with a higher or lower kicker, two-pair, an overpair, such as Q-Q up to A-A, a pair of 7s or 5s or even a pair of Jacks. If he calls your raise, you have to at least suspect a hand like that, but if he re-raises you, the probability of a “set” (trips) is increased. As frightening as that is, your opponent has to also begin thinking that you may have a set or any other hand mentioned above, which is why a re-raise is giving you important information. Your raise is basically saying, “I have two-pair, a set or overpair” and your opponent’s re-raise is saying, “I know you have two-pair, a set or an overpair and it doesn’t scare me.”
It could also be saying, “I’m bluffing.”
Honestly, if I were able to detect every bluff thrown at me, I’d just play poker for a year and retire as a very rich person. So, while none of us can sniff out every bluff, we can probably spot a large percentage of them (how will we ever know for sure?), based upon the pattern of play by our opponent. If the player on the Button raises most of the time when in that position, he is either receiving good cards at an opportune time or, more likely, bluffing a lot. It’s no secret that picking up the blinds and antes with little risk is a very profitable venture; we all should do it whenever the math makes sense (see Lesson 13 for more on the topic). Bluffs are, at least for me, difficult to deal with when I have a hand such as top pair, second-best kicker like the K-J in the example above. It’s a decent hand, no doubt, but there are a lot of hands that beat it, so a re-raise back at me is usually going to convince me to fold. I say “usually” because if I were to fold every time, anyone who knew my style of play would simply come back at me whenever I raised.
But in a tournament situation, most of the players have never seen me before, so I’ll generally give them credit for the hand they’re representing with the re-raise. However, if my opponent has raised a lot on the Button and I then re-raise and he raises back, I will call if I have previously folded to him in a situation like that. Sure, this may be the time when he really has a hand, but I’ve got to send a message to not only my opponent, but the others at the table; you can’t move me off my hand just by coming back at me. This is a good point to talk about “gambling” as it relates to NLHE tournaments. You all have undoubtedly heard others say, “Sometimes you just have to gamble” and I agree. But there’s gambling and there’s gambling. Raising in early position with A-8s and calling a re-raise is gambling. I’d only do that if I were short-stacked and desperate.
What I do and recommend you do, is to gamble on whether or not my opponent is bluffing. What I hold isn’t all that important; it only has to be able to beat a bluff. As I gain experience, I’m constantly being surprised by how often players bluff. Missed Flush draws are somewhat predictable of course (if only two of a suit is on the board, nobody has a Flush) and missed Straight draws are fairly evident as well. More difficult to determine is the bluff where your opponent holds second pair, but is representing top pair and you hold top pair with a poor kicker. As an example, let’s say you have Kh-5h and the flop is Kc,Js,7d. Your opponent bets into it and you raise. If he calls your raise, you have got to at least suspect he also has a King and, if he does, his kicker may be better than yours. But don’t forget that he might be holding Q-J here and is hoping for either a J or Q to come on the turn, which is evidenced by the fact he didn’t re-raise. Let’s say the turn card is 10h. If he now bets into you, it could mean he has either made a Straight (from a hand of A-Q or Q-9), hit two-pair (from a hand like K-10 or J-10) or has a Straight draw (from a hand of J-Q). I would just call here, unless I had a lot of chips, in which case I’d raise in light of my Flush draw. Either move is a gamble, but I think it’s a reasonable gamble. I still have top pair and, unless the river card makes my hand totally untenable, I’m going to call his river bet, assuming he makes one. Of course, if the river makes my Flush, he’s getting it with both barrels, should he bet. Yes, he might have A-x of hearts, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take. After all, I’m gambling, right?
Back to information raises in general: They require a certain amount of discipline on your part to work effectively. When I first began using them, I would often call if my opponent re-raised me and I lost darn near every hand. A re-raise of your information bet is something that very experienced players will do in higher-level tournaments (like $50+ Sit and Go matches), but in lower level tourneys, you usually have to let the hand go if he re-raises. I’m sure you’ll run into many exceptions to that, but I approach it this way: My opponent’s re-raise has given me the information I wanted – basically that he has me beat – so I fold and go on to the next hand with no regret. When I’m against “sophisticated” opponents who will re-raise as a matter of course, I will go all in if I have top two-pair or better and that either makes them fold or I end up winning the hand because they’re betting an overpair. Sometimes they have a set and I’m toast, but that’s rare and my 16.5% shot at a Full House (the probabilty with two-pair made on the flop with 2 cards to come) makes the pain bearable.
In a game played with a fixed limit betting structure, a player chooses only whether to bet or not – the amount is fixed by rule. To enable the possibility of bluffing, the fixed amount generally doubles at some point in the game. This double wager amount is referred to as a big bet.
For example, a four-round game called “20 and 40 limit” (usually written as $20/$40) may specify that each bet in the first two rounds is $20, and that each big bet used in the third and fourth rounds is $40. This amount applies to each raise, not the total amount bet in a round, so a player may bet $20, be raised $20, and then re-raise another $20, for a total bet of $60, in such a game.
Sandbagging (also called slow play) is deceptive play in poker that is roughly the opposite of bluffing: betting weakly with a strong holding rather than betting strongly with a weak one. The check-raise is one such play.
This might involve a check or call with a hand that you might otherwise raise with, to lure other players into the pot who might fold to a raise, or to lure them into betting more strongly than they would if you had bet or raised. This is often dangerous because it sacrifices the protection that a bet or raise would give you, and it also risks losing the pot-building value of a bet if your opponents also check. It can nonetheless be profitable to do this under circumstances that include the following:
Your hand is so strong that protection isn’t needed.
An opponent is likely to bet when you don’t.
Opponents are likely to fold or just call if you bet.
Here’s an example from a four-handed draw poker game among Alice, Bob, Carol, and David: After anteing, Alice looks at her hand to find a pair of aces, and opens the betting for $2. Bob raises an additional $2, bringing the bet to $4. Carol folds. David calls the $4, and Alice puts in an additional $2 to match the raise. Drawing three cards, she receives another ace, and a pair of fives. Since her aces-full is almost certain to be unbeatable, it does not need the protection of a bet (and this is the last betting round, where protection applies less anyway). Also, Bob earlier raised, and David called a raise, so they likely have strong hands and one of them will bet if Alice doesn’t. Finally, since Bob and David earlier showed strength, and they know that Alice knows this, Alice betting into them would be seen as a bold move likely to scare one or both of them off, especially if they weren’t as strong as they seem. This is a perfect place for a check-raise. Alice checks. As she hoped, Bob bets $2. David thinks for a minute, then calls the $2. Alice now springs the trap and raises $2. Bob calls the additional $2, and David (who now realizes that he is probably beaten) folds. Bob reveals three sixes, and surrenders the pot to Alice. If Alice had just bet her hand on the second round, it is likely that Bob would just have called and David may or may not have called, earning Alice $2 to $4 on the second round. But with the check-raise play, she earned $6.
Even in games (such as California lowball) where the check-raise is not allowed, one can make other sandbagging plays such as just calling (“flat calling”) instead of raising with a very strong hand and then later raising.
In games with many betting rounds, such as stud poker and community card poker games, one can make multiple-round sandbagging plays. Let’s say, for example, you are playing Seven-card stud and your first three cards are all fours. An opponent with a king showing bets first, and you raise, getting two callers. On the next round, the first bettor catches another king, and you miraculously catch the last four. You suspect he has two pair or three kings, and he suspects that you have two pair or three fours (four of a kind is so unlikely that he will probably ignore the possibility, just as you can probably ignore the possibility that he has four kings). He bets again, and you just call. You should probably just call for next round or two, and maybe even check if no one bets, rather than raising, for several reasons. Your hand is so strong that the chance of getting beaten is negligible, so you don’t need protection. If the bettor just has two pair and you act strongly, he may think you have three fours and fold if he doesn’t improve. Allowing other players to continue for smaller stakes might allow one of them to catch a hand such as a straight, flush, or full house that will call your final bets or possibly even raise you back, building a very big pot. Finally, keeping as many players in the game as possible will make a bigger pot. At some point, though, you will have to “come out of the woodwork” and bet strongly; after all, the point of the exercise is to get more money in the pot, and you can’t do that by continuing to check on every round.
Another common sandbagging play that occurs only on the last betting round is called “fishing for the overcall”. This occurs when the last card you are dealt makes you a very strong hand, a player in front of you bets, and there are more players to act behind you. While you might normally raise with your hand, just calling may encourage the players behind you to overcall when they would have folded to a raise. This play is best when there are several players behind you, and they are the kind of player likely to call one bet but not a raise. If there is only one player behind you, for example, then getting the overcall gains no more money than raising and having the initial bettor call (at least in a fixed limit game). This play also sacrifices the profit you might have made from players who would have overcalled even the raise.
In poker, to bluff is to bet or raise with an inferior hand, or with a hand believed to be inferior. The term is also used as a noun: a bluff is the act of bluffing.
The bluff is an important part of the strategy of any poker game, though it will come into play more in some games than in others. This is because a bluff is intended to represent a strong hand. For example, bluffs are much stronger in pot-limit and no-limit games, because your opponent will have worse pot odds, in addition to the threat of larger bets in future betting rounds if there are any. On the other hand, bluffing is less common in limit Omaha, because it’s often likely that if you don’t have the hand you represent, one of your opponents does.
Strategy
Do not be predictable. If you always bluff in certain situations, your opponents will figure this out and start calling more. On the other hand, if you never bluff, they will figure that out too and stop calling your non-bluff bets, which is a bad thing—even though you might win the hand, you will fail to win the amount of their call. The exact ideal bluffing frequency in each game situation is a complicated exercise in game theory that you will not be able to solve at the table, so you may have to rely on rules of thumb, prior analysis, experience, and intuition.
General guidelines
Bluffs are more successful with fewer people in the pot. Against only one or two opponents, your chances are often good that no one has a hand good enough to call. Against three or more opponents, at least one of them probably does, so bluffing is unlikely to succeed.
Bluff much less in high-low split games—some very weak hands will call hoping for half the pot, and the likelihood of splitting the pot greatly reduces your pot odds in any case. In some games such as limit Omaha high-low, you would not be giving up much advantage if you never bluffed at all.
In games with many betting rounds, bluffs are more often successful in early rounds rather than late ones. Once other players have put a lot of money into the pot, they are less likely to give up (this tendency is based on the false concept of being “pot-committed” and goes beyond the correct strategy of calling more often with higher pot odds. cf. sunk cost fallacy)
Value bet your strong hands, consider bluffing with hands you are almost sure cannot win any other way, and check the ones in between: On the last betting round, if you have a hand that might be good but that is not very strong, you are probably better off checking and then calling a bet by your opponent rather than bluffing. A player with a worse hand will probably not call if you bet, but a check might induce your opponent to bluff, allowing your call to win more money. On the other hand, a player with a better hand than yours will almost certainly call, and may raise, costing you money. You also do not need the protection of a bet.
A raise, and especially a check-raise, as a bluff is more psychologically intimidating than just opening. Of course it also risks more of your money and makes the pot bigger (and therefore more likely to be called), so it must be used with care.
Semi-bluffs
In games with multiple betting rounds, to bluff on one round with an inferior or drawing hand that might become a much better one by chance in a later round is often called a semi-bluff. Semi-bluffs thus afford a player two opportunities to win the pot: everyone may fold, or the player still might win the showdown if called.
For example, a player in a stud poker game with four spade-suited cards showing (but none among their downcards) on the penultimate round might raise, hoping that others believe they have a flush even though they do not. If their bluff fails and they are called, they still might be dealt a spade on the final card and win the showdown (or they might be dealt another non-spade and try their bluff again, in which case it is a pure bluff or stone-cold bluff on the final round rather than a semi-bluff).
Randomizing devices
In performing bluffs, it often helps to have a randomizing device: for example, if your analysis or experience leads you to believe that you should bluff half of the time in a certain situation, use a device such as the color of the last card dealt. Another strategy useful in short-handed games is to give yourself fake outs: if a jack is not a scare card, pretend that every jack is an out for you, even if it is not. This strategy has a mathematical basis in game theory.
Bluff (the game)
Bluff is an ancient predecessor of poker played in the 1800s, where only the cards from 10 to Ace were used, and straights and flushes hadn’t been invented yet.
There are several excellent books on poker strategy, and this article will only attempt to deal with the basics that must be mastered by the beginner. A list of articles on the material summarized here appears below.
Hand strength
Once a player has mastered the rank of hands, it is more important to realize their relative strength at a poker table. Approximately half the five-card hands in any given game will be less than a pair of twos, but only about one-fourth of five-card hands in the long run will be better than a pair of Aces. A full house is such a good hand that it is far more likely to be the best hand on the table than a 7 high (the lowest possible hand) is to be the lowest hand at a given table.
One mistake made by many beginners is to bet hands that are unlikely to win in the showdown, hoping that they will eventually improve. In the long run, this is a losing strategy against experienced players. For example, in draw poker, any hand less than a pair should generally be folded at the earliest opportunity. In other games, such as Texas Hold ‘Em where only two cards are dealt before the betting round, unmatched combinations of low cards are unlikely to result in a winning hand.
Improvement and pot odds
Athough improvement is possible with virtually every hand, most beginners forget that players with better hands may also improve their hands on the draw, and that in the long run the player with the better hand before a draw is likely to have the better hand after the draw as well. Generally, if you have reason to believe that your opponent has a better hand than you at any given point of a betting round, the appropriate action is to fold. However, if the money in the pot is large compared to the bet required to stay in (the “pot odds”), a call is possible. This is particularly the case when a player is attempting to fill a straight or flush. However, the approximate odds of filling an outside straight on the next draw is about 6-1, and the odds of similarly filling a flush is about 5-1. As such, calling is not recommended if the money that could be won gives a lesser payout on the bet.
One bet made by beginners that rarely pays off is to fill an “inside straight” – a straight with one of the middle cards missing. The odds against filling such a straight on a single draw are roughly 13-1 against and should not be considered unless the pot odds are particularly good.
Bluffing
Beginners, even talented beginners, see bluffing as a way to “buy” the pot. However, bluffing seldom works against poor players (who tend to overestimate the strength of their hand to begin with) and does not work for long against expert players if a player bluffs too frequently. Although all players should bluff occasionally to make their large bets on good hands look less credible, consistent and constant bluffing generally leads to large losses.
In large games it is difficult to bluff because of the high chance that someone has a good hand. It is also more sensible for your opponents to call than fold if the pot is large unless they are sure their hand is dead. Paying $10 to call with $100 in the pot is good value for anyone with more than a 10% chance of winning.
Position play
Generally, players who have to bet first need stronger hands to open the betting than players who bet later. This is because the raw odds of a better hand being on the table increase based on the number of players who have not had the opportunity to bet. For example, in a six-player game of draw poker, it is recommended that a player check in the first betting position unless they have at least a pair of aces. However, the last player to bet (the dealer) may open the betting if no-one else has spoken with as little as a pair of twos. One expert Hold ‘Em player recommends folding if you are the first player to the left of the blind unless you have the strength to raise.
