Okay, as promised, here’s a chart of probabilities for various hands you might hold at the flop, which means the first three community cards have been dealt. This chart assumes you’ll get to see two more cards – the turn and the river – and further assumes you won’t have to make any futher bets. That’s not likely to happen, of course, but remember that you might make your hand on the turn in which case the numbers become unimportant, because you’ll likely call (if not raise) any bet from that point forward.
| Hand at the Flop | Becomes | At this rate of probability | Bet Multiplier |
| Two-pair | Full House | 16.5% | 6 |
| 4-card Flush | Flush | 35.0% | 3 |
| 4-card open-ended Straight | Straight | 31.5% | 3.3 |
| 4-card inside Straight | Straight | 16.5% | 6 |
| Any Pair | Three-of-a-kind | 8.5% | 12 |
| Any Three-of-a-kind | Four-of-a-kind | 4.4% | 22 |
If you miss making your hand on the turn, here’s a chart to help you decide if you should call a bet before the river card is dealt:
| Hand at the Turn | Becomes | At this rate of probability | Bet Multiplier |
| Two-pair | Full House | 8.7% | 12 |
| 4-card Flush | Flush | 19.5% | 5 |
| 4-card open-ended Straight | Straight | 17.4% | 6 |
| 4-card inside Straight | Straight | 8.7% | 12 |
| Any Pair | Three-of-a-kind | 4.3% | 22 |
| Any Three-of-a-kind | Four-of-a-kind | 2.1% | 48 |
The numbers to use to multiply your proposed bet in order to compare it with the pot to see if you’ll be betting with a positive expectation are a little on the conservative side, so adjust them if you can live with more risk, especially where you already have a “made” hand, such as Trips, etc. As I explained above, sometimes the hand you’re hoping to improve will be good enough to win the pot, so over-betting a little probably won’t hurt you in the long run, but remember that 4-card Straights and Flushes are basically worthless if they don’t convert, so I’d advise against “pushing the envelope” when it comes to betting those hands.
As I said in Lesson 1, Internet poker rooms are different than their brick-and-mortar counterparts and the instant tabulation of the pot’s value is one of those distinctions. Rather than spending your time trying to figure what’s in the pot, you can spend it by seeing if your bet will have a positive EV and, in the long run, that’ll be worth a lot of $$$ to you.
(Source: GameMaster)
